KRUNGSRI RESEARCH: Monthly Economic Bulletin March 2018 Global: The trade war begins US Fed’s hawkish communication ‘powerfully effective’ in reducing the degree of financial accommodation. We expect a shift in the Dots but upward trajectory would be backfilled into 2019 and beyond, rather than this year. European growth momentum weakened early this year but remains strong enough to imply above-trend growth. ECB removes easing bias on QE— another step towards QE exit; we expect a major move in June. Japan growth slower but for good reason; rising imports reflect firmer domestic demand. BOJ Governor hints at considering exit policy in the fiscal year 2019. Thailand: Convergence of domestic and external activities.Economy starts 2018 on solid footing, while headline inflation remains soft but is close to bottoming out. Economic and financial conditions increasingly justify a fresh start to normalization.
Credited to Krungsri Bank.